Context Aware Sales Prediction: experimental evaluation

نویسندگان

  • Indrė Žliobaitė
  • Jorn Bakker
  • Mykola Pechenizkiy
چکیده

Sales prediction is a complex task because of large number of factors affecting the demand. We present a context aware sales prediction approach, which selects the base predictor depending on the structural properties of the historical sales. First, we learn how to categorize the sales time series offline into “predictable” and “non-predictable” based on the structural features of the series. Next, for the products identified as “predictable” we apply an intelligent base predictor, while for “non-predictable” we use a moving average. In the experimental part we show that prediction accuracy can be improved using this strategy, as compared to the base line predictor as well as an ensemble of predictors.

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تاریخ انتشار 2010